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WORLD CUP
World Cup

How would the United States have fared in this World Cup? Tim Howard, USMNT vets weigh in

Tim Howard and the U.S. reached the round of 16 in the 2014 World Cup.

MOSCOW – Tim Howard has been watching the World Cup, difficult though it has been to come to terms with the knowledge that his final chance of playing in soccer’s greatest tournament has passed him by.

He takes in the games, still pained by the United States’ failure to qualify and looks out for the performances of friends on the England and Belgium squads. He wonders, after all the weird developments that cost the Americans a spot in Russia – what if?

What if things had been different, either on that bizarre final night of qualifying in Trinidad and Tobago or, indeed, at any of the other points of the campaign where the USA could have collected the extra win it needed to get over the line?

What if the Americans had actually made it?

Basic logic would suggest that, as regional rivals Panama (3rd in CONCACAF) and Costa Rica (2nd) were both poor enough to lose their first two group games and be eliminated from the tournament, that the USA (5th) would have fared just as badly.

Yet soccer, and especially its biggest events, have little room for such simple conclusions.

“There have been many times when teams struggled in qualifying and then looked totally different in the World Cup,” Howard told USA TODAY Sports, via telephone. “It is not far-fetched to say we could have had a great run.”

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The only thing certain about the question of how the USA would have performed is that everyone has a different opinion – and that we will never know the real answer. As with any World Cup, much would have depended on the draw, although hypothetically inserting the USA into Panama or Costa Rica’s groups is a fair and reasonable point of reference.

Former national team forward Charlie Davies believes that the Americans would have struggled in both Group E (against Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia) and Group G (Belgium, England and Tunisia).

“I could definitely see us beating Tunisia, but apart from that I think it would have been two (losses) and missing out on the knockout stage,” Davies said. “Belgium and England are two very strong teams, and considering how disjointed things were in qualifying, there didn’t seem to be the right level of chemistry or camaraderie there. It would have been tough. It looked fractured.”

Davies felt the Brazil-led group may have been even trickier, pointing out that while Switzerland and Serbia are both potentially beatable opponents for the USA, right now “they are both far ahead of us as a team.”

Former U.S. captain Marcelo Balboa felt the team would have “struggled” in the group topped by Belgium and England, and would probably have finished third. However, he felt that Group E would have offered a sold chance of progression, along with Brazil.

“Whatever transpired, it would have had to be a better performance than we saw in qualifying, other it would have been bad news,” Balboa said. “The USA will always scratch and battle, no matter what group they are in.

“This is just a fantasy now unfortunately, but I would always give the USA a fighting chance of getting out of a group situation. Having a lot of heart and ability to grind would have helped, especially against Serbia and Switzerland. That would have given the better chance, and I think they could have done it.”

Howard pointed out that few observers expected the Americans to finish top of its group in 2010 in South Africa, when it was paired with England, Slovenia and Algeria.

“And in 2014, we were in the 'Group of Death' (with Germany, Portugal and Ghana) and we got out of it when not many people gave us a chance,” he added. “As a team we have experience of those kind of situations.”

Even if it had been placed in with Belgium and England, both of which have looked outstanding so far, Howard believes the Americans could have made headway. “In a group situation, even a tough one like that, I would always back us to be very competitive and put ourselves in a position to qualify,” Howard said.

Christian Pulisic briefly conveyed a similar sentiment in a recent interview, yet an intriguing point centers around what the team would have looked like if it had qualified. Bruce Arena relied largely on veterans for the qualifying campaign, but admitted he may have introduced fresh blood for the World Cup itself.

“It is hard to think that many of the kids coming through now, like Weston McKennie, Timothy Weah and Josh Sargent, would have gotten a sniff,” said Davies, whose national team career was cut short by a serious car accident the night before a World Cup qualifier in 2009. “A lot of questions would need to have been answered,”

Balboa agreed and noted that with leading forward Jozy Altidore having undergone foot surgery in May, the look of the front line may have been different. “Ultimately the decision would have been this,” Balboa said. “Do you go with the older players to give them a farewell, or are there some new faces brought in?”

For many USA fans, the disbelief surrounding the team’s failure to qualify after participating in the previous seven World Cups is starting to wear off. There is not much else to do except enjoy the tournament, and speculate as to what might have happened. But maybe not time to move on just yet.

“Sometimes it is okay to feel bad and to let it linger,” Howard said. The goalkeeper appeared in a humorous commercial for Wish.com featuring himself and other stars who missed out on the World Cup finding new summer hobbies, but in reality, he takes no cheer from what transpired. “No one is going to say anything that is going to make me feel better.”

As to what might have happened with a USA campaign, all we have is opinion. And a general sense of agreement, summed up by Balboa.

“Let’s hope we never have this conversation again,” he said.

 

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